=====Course unit: Models and Decisions =====
** <color red> Beware! Under construction. </color> **
==== Course metadata ====
  * Title in French: Modèles et Décisions
  * Course code: tba
  * ECTS credits: 8
  * Type: ground course
  * Teaching hours: 100h
  * Period: September to mid-November
  * Language of instruction: English and French
  * Coordinator: tba
  * Instructor(s): Mitra Fouladirad, Christophe Pouet, Clément Depoutre (BNP Paribas), Gaël Leboeuf (Aix-Marseille Université)
  * //Last update 04/07/2022 by C. Pouet//

==== Brief description ====

This course unit is divided into four parts:
  * ** Risk and decision ** (24 hours) taught by Clément Depoutre
  * ** Statistics and decisions ** (24 hours) taught by Mitra Fouladirad and Christophe Pouet
  * ** Corporate finance ** (24 hours) taught by Gaël Leboeuf
  * ** Data project: business issues understanding** (20 hours) taught by tba

==== Learning outcomes ====

  * Understand how to take decision under uncertainty
  * Learn how to assess risk and how to compare risky situations
  * Learn how to model, estimate and predict time series
  * Understand how capital structure affects the value of the firm

==== Course content ====
=== Risk and decision ===
  - Introduction: diversification and mutualization
  - Risk measure
  - Expected utility
  - Supply and demand: the price of risk
  - The value of information
  - Market & Counterparty Risk Management

=== Statistics and decisions ===
  - Reminder on probability: conditional expectation
  - Stochastic processes in discrete and continuous time
  - ARMA process: definition, existence, characteristics (autocovariance, partial autocovariance)
  - Estimation of ARMA processes: identification, parameters estimation and validation
  - Extensions: SARIMA, ARCH and GARCH processes

=== Corporate finance===
  - The Corporation
  - Introduction to Financial Statements Analysis
  - Financial Decision Making and the Law of One Price
  - The Time Value of Money
  - Investment Decision Rules
  - Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting
  - Capital Markets and The Pricing of Risk
  - Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Capital Asset Pricing Model
  - Estimatong the Cost of Capital
  - Capital Structure in a Perfect Market
  - Mergers and Acquisitiions

=== Data Project:  business issues understanding===
tba

==== Bibliography ====
You can check the availability of the books below at [[https://documentation.centrale-marseille.fr/|Centrale Marseille library]].
  - Risk and decision
     * [[http://dhenriet.perso.centrale-marseille.fr/risk/|course ebook]]
     * Gollier, C., Schlesinger, H. and Eeckhoudt, L. (2005). Economic and Financial Decisions Under Risk. Princeton University Press
  - Statistics and decisions
     * course handout
     * Brockwell, P.J. and Davis, R.A. (1991). Time Series: Theory and Methods. Second Edition. New York: Springer Verlag.
     * Box, J.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M. (1970). Time Series Analysis; Forecasting and Control. San Francisco: Holden Day.
  - Corporate finance
     * Berk, J. and DeMarzo, P. (2019) Corporate finance. Prentice Hall; 5th edition. 
     * [[http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar|Aswath Damodaran at NYU]]: Course and video materials, formulas, spreadsheets, estimated risk premium, Cost of capital by sector and more. 
     * [[http://www.vernimmen.net/|The Vernimmen handbook homepage]]: Course and video materials, formulas, spreadsheets, corrected exercises and case studies, newsletter, financial data on 7,000 listed companies and more. 
     * [[http://www.amf-france.org/Recherche-avancee?formId=BDIF|AMF]]. Annual reports and legal informations on French listed companies.
     * [[https://fr.finance.yahoo.com/|Yahoo! Finance]]. Financial data on listed companies.